10/17 – Payton’s Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

High pressure will remain over the eastern half of the country at
the surface as upper ridging moves from the 4 Corners area today
to the Mississippi River Valley by the end of the week. No rain
expected through Thursday, with a couple degrees moderation in
temperatures each day. No large variances in temperatures between
guidance and previous forecast, so no significant changes made.

Toward the weekend models in much better agreement this morning with the
passage of a fairly deep trough through the area Sunday or Sunday
night. About 6-12 hours difference on timing, with the GFS being
the slightly faster guidance. This could bring a chance of rain
back to the area as early as Saturday afternoon, per the GFS
solution, but both models indicate Sunday is the best chance of
rain with high chance to likely POPs needed. The biggest question
mark will be Monday. The ECMWF solution would require fairly
healthy rain chances on Monday, while the GFS suggests a dry
forecast. Will go with a lower chance of rain than the ECMWF suggests, but not
dry like the GFS. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average into the weekend. Then another cold front moves into the area the beginning of next week.

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