10/12 – Rob’s “Drier” Thursday Afternoon Forecast
With a weak cold front to the east moving away from the area, drier air continues to move into the viewing area.
Dry air will get a slightly stronger forcing by this evening and overnight bringing mid 60 dp temps to the viewing area. The dry air will not overstay its welcome though as a deep moisture surge ahead of the next strong cold front rapidly forces the old front back to the north Saturday night into Sunday. This should help being some showers/t-s activity back to at least the southern half of the area by Sunday and t-storms possibly staying into Monday. A cold front moving southeast will undercut this high-pressure which causes it to lose all or nearly all of its sh/ts activity and get capped. But, the cold front will bring some much needed dry air to the region which will be felt by all this time.
Again, the dry air does not stay long as a tropical wave moves into the gulf extending to the north central gulf bringing deeper moisture back to the region starting Tuesday. The dry air will be stubborn to get forced out of at least the northern third of the area until Thursday. Cloud cover and some precipitation falling through the dry air may keep things cooler than normal Wednesday and Thursday of next week over the northern portion of the area. Also the general weakness associated with the easterly wave interacting with the strong ridging from the north will cause winds to rise a bit to around 15 to 20 knots over the gulf. But this time they look to be out of the northeast which should allow water levels to remain under control. This is at the far end of the extended forecast at the moment.