10/2 – Rob Knight “Above Seasonal” Morning Forecast

Summer does not want to give up. The pattern that has been with us for a while now will continue possibly even into mid-October. Locally, the climatological norm would be for a drier pattern. But as the trend continues with deep easterlies, a few tropical waves will move through the marine areas at least.

The first of these can be seen over the eastern gulf this morning. No issues are expected with this feature with the exception of some rainfall enhancement near the coast and over the marine areas. This will be fighting the strong ridge that will be setting up just inland, so showers/t-storms may not be capable of making their way very far inland. Another wave should make itself known by the weekend with another round of showers/t-storms developing over at least the western half of the area.

We will be well overdue for the first cold front of the year when it finally gets here. But for this forecast, that is simply too far out to have any confidence in any variable associated with it.

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