1/31 – Rob Knight’s Monday Morning “February Outlook” Forecast

A west Texas disturbance will slip southeastward off the Texas Coast by Tuesday morning, and will continue to weaken as it moves toward south Florida by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday morning, another disturbance will extend from Manitoba to western Montana to Baja California. This will place the local area in strong southwesterly upper flow by Wednesday. The low level onshore flow will increase as begin to destabilize.

As moisture levels continue to increase on Tuesday, clouds will gradually lower, and we could see some isolated to scattered showers Tuesday afternoon and evening, but warm mid-level temperatures should keep any threat of thunderstorms extremely isolated. Threat for scattered to numerous showers continues for much of Wednesday and Wednesday night, but the main frontal boundary will remain west of our area through Wednesday night.

Main forecast challenge in the longer term will be the timing and intensity of the cold front late in the workweek and its implications for the weekend. I would not be surprised if the forecast continues to trend warmer and wetter through the weekend as there is some indication the front could get caught up near the coast. While colder air is anticipated behind the front, with below normal temperatures beyond Thursday, it doesn’t look quite as cold as the last couple of systems, at least over our area.

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