1/29 – Rob’s Monday “Sunshine Returns” Forecast

An area of low-pressure over northeast Florida is yielding a northwest flow over Mississippi and south half of Louisiana. In addition, another cold front extended from Ohio Valley to Arkansas to West Texas. Upper air analysis showed a trough axis from the Great Lakes region to north central Gulf with an embedded disturbance over Missouri. IR satellite imagery showed the clearing line of low clouds from the NW-SE.

A frontal zone to the north is expected to push south and enter the N’tern zones/SW Mississippi later this afternoon and clear the land zones into the gulf by midnight as it dissipates. This pattern will maintain a dry period today through early Wednesday. A light freeze is possible across southwest Mississippi through Hattiesburg Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Another system will dive in from northwest and tap gulf moisture across the west gulf and eventually our forecast Thursday. The deeper moisture will likely remain along the coast on Thursday and lift of limited moisture will hamper coverage Thursday. The associated cold front will push through Thursday night. Deeper moisture will pool along the main trough southwest Louisiana to eastern Tennessee Thursday evening and sweep south Thursday night into Friday. Will maintain chance pops along the front and behind the front Thursday night into Friday. Mid layer instability will not be present and thunder is not expected Thursday or Friday. The upper level trough is not relatively strong this far south and moisture will only be displaced to the northern areas of the Gulf only providing a break in rain chances late Friday and Saturday. However, moisture is expected to retreat back with rain chances Saturday night into Sunday.

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