1/17 – Rob Knight’s “Cool & Breezy” Monday Morning Forecast
The first 36 hours of the forecast is pretty straight forward as high-pressure moves eastward across the area, with onshore flow returning Tuesday. Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to moderate fairly quickly…to about 55-60 today and in the 60s on Tuesday.
As winds turn onshore by Tuesday afternoon, we’ll see moisture levels begin to increase with dew points approaching 50 by Tuesday evening, to around 60 by midday Wednesday. This will set the stage for the passage of the next cold front overnight Wednesday night, driven by a strong disturbance moving through the Great Lakes. There will be a small window for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening to develop before storms outrun the best moisture/instability. SPC has outlooked about the northwest third of the area for a Marginal Risk of severe weather in this scenario.
The start of this portion of the forecast begins right where the previous ended with cold front exiting the area and marching across the Gulf of Mexico. Back edge of the rain could be linger over southern portions of the local area but should be ending for most areas by around noon. Post frontal cloud cover will probably stick in the rest of the day. That combined with strong cold air advection will maintain quite cold temps with highs in the mid-40s to mid-50s.
The long term forecast confidence continues to be low. With linger rain and very cold temperatures Friday morning, a brief window for FREEZING RAIN & SLEET will exist between 5 AM – 9 AM. Hard freeze conditions are a possibility as well heading into the weekend.