09/22 Ryan’s “First Fall Day” Thursday Forecast
Not a bad start to the first Fall day with our mostly clear skies and drier air, but temperatures remained in the lower 90s today, shattering the illusion. I’m expecting upper level ridging and surface high pressure in the Southeast to continue producing sunny & warm days for the short term, but as that ridge erodes we’ll see an increase in cloud cover and afternoon shower chances as we finish out the weekend. A cold front is expected to move into the area to start off the week, raising shower & storm chances into the 40% range, but forecast confidence is low as to whether the front lingers or pushes through quickly. If it’s the latter, we’ll see lower 80s temps and clearing skies by Wednesday, but if the front lingers we could see cloud cover and showers last through the end of the week.
A new area of disturbed weather is moving off the African Coast, and will continue its quick westward pace, bringing it into an area conducive for gradual development by the start of next week. Still expecting no local impact from TS Lisa or TS Karl, but Bermuda will receive at least a glancing blow on Saturday.