09/08 Ryan’s “Latest on Irma” Friday Forecast

Since the local weather is expected to remain sunny, mild, and clear for the next week or more, we’ll continue to focus on Irma and its potential impact.

Irma’s forecast path has changed slightly, and just like the last few updates it has moved slightly more to the West. The current “middle track” would have the eye moving through the Everglades and near Ft. Meyers, sadly placing the stronger Northeast quadrant up nearly the entire length of the Florida’s East Coast. Keep in mind the track is still in flux though, and the shear size and strength of the storm make the landfall area almost a moot point as the life-threatening conditions will extend for miles in any direction. Most of Florida should be ready for between 4″ and a foot of rain, with localized areas (mostly along the East Coast) getting 20″ or more. Current storm surge estimates a 12 foot storm surge is possible, but that could increase if the storm strengthens significantly. Please keep the people of South/Eastern Florida in your thoughts as Irma moves in over the next 4 days.

Jose became a major hurricane yesterday, but strengthened to Category 4 today. This storm is not expected to make a U.S. landfall, but seems it will come close enough to the NE Lesser Antilles islands, already reeling from Irma’s pass a few days ago. Hopefully this storm remains East and continues into the open Atlantic as expected.

Katia has about 6 hours left to intensify into the 4th major hurricane of the season, and the third currently active. Regardless of the outcome of this bit of trivia, the storm is expected to head SW into the Veracruz area of Mexico tomorrow morning, and will dissipate quickly over the Sierra Madre mountain range.