07/28 – Rob Knight’s “Elevated Rain Chances” Tuesday Morning Forecast
Another day of showers with isolated t-storms before the pattern begins to change. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in effect through this evening as another inch or 2 of accumulation will be possible. The drier period that starts on Thursday will continue on Friday as weaker high-pressure centered around Florida extends west into Texas.
This will bring in subsiding air through the atmosphere as the moisture flow will push northward. The combo of dropping moisture and increasing subsidence should stunt any convective initiation. The other side of not having storm development means temps will rebound closer to normal with highs around 90.
The dry period won’t last very long. While a broad trough will be dipping into northeastern portions of the country, a disturbance will be track across and the mid/southern Mississippi
Valley. A cold front associated with this trough will reach the Gulf Coast late Saturday into Sunday.
The front will not be bringing cold air to the region, but rather provide a focus for thunderstorms to develop on. Timing may result in a mostly dry Saturday, but Sunday through Tuesday will see daily thunderstorm development as the trough stalls. An easterly wave moving into the Gulf of Mexico mid-week may also bring additional enhancement to coverage and rainfall rates.