06/24 – Rob Knight’s “Muggy” Wednesday Morning Forecast
Deep tropical moisture continues to stream over the area this morning and this does not look to stop through at least Thursday. There is very good evidence that the environment is very supportive of training thunderstorms starting now through roughly 11 a.m. today. Afterwards, these parameters fall out of favor for this scenario and all activity becomes more progressive and transitory.
A weak surface low will set up today near the Houston area. Upper level disturbances will be connected with surface variables provided by the weakness the surface gives to keep showers/t-storms moving through the area into at least Thursday.
The surface low will pull out Thursday bringing rain chances a bit lower but definitely not shutting down the water works. Activity may simply take a bit longer to get started with daytime heating. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could cause some damaging straight line winds. As normal during tropical environments, waterspouts and a weak tornado will remain a possibility. But the main thing to look for is the potential for flooding rainfall. This is still expected to be localized and the most prominent thing would be streets and low lying areas that normally flood during heavy rainfall.
Even though, each day will bring a chance of rain into next week. The activity may take longer to get started and allow a few areas to dry out each day. A slow progression to lower rain chances will occur into mid next week.