05/25 Ryan’s “Uncertain” Friday Evening Forecast

The word “uncertain” isn’t often associated with my forecasts, but it’s still an appropriate descriptor for this one.

The issue lies with the final path of Alberto. Depending on how far East or West the storm is pushed we’ll see vastly different results.

For instance, the 12 Z run of the GFS model was estimating around 15″ of rainfall for Gulfport because Alberto was forecast to stall just off the coast before landing just West of South MS. The 18 Z run moved the storm about 70 miles East and was slightly faster, so the rain estimate for Gulfport dropped to 2.75″. The amount of uncertainty regarding the final path/strength will be resolved within the next day or so, bringing much more clarity to the forecast and allowing for much better preparation. Regardless, expect more afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend before Alberto’s effects move in Monday Evening.