Rob Martin’s “Stormy/Windy/Cold” Friday Evening Forecast
Thunderstorms to increase in number and intensity tonight. Strong to possibly severe storms will be possible along the MS coastal areas and east. The more favorable parameters for strong storms will be in place along the MS coast as the system moves through the area. Lightning, gusty winds, and hail will be possible with stronger storms. There are two threat times: the first in late afternoon, and the second tonight after 8 PM as the arctic cold front approaches from the northwest.
Another hazard worth noting is the trends in the models to show strong post-frontal gradient winds. General model consensus shows winds 20+ mph starting late Friday evening and running through Saturday, with gusts up to 40 mph.
A wind advisory is now posted for this time period, as is a gale warning for our coastal waters. Rough seas expected later tonight through Saturday.
High-pressure will move in Saturday with clearing skies. Saturday night into Sunday, the setup looks to be favorable for radiational cooling, so temperatures will be near-record cold values by daybreak Sunday morning. Lighter winds, clear skies, and cold air advection will allow for temperatures to overachieve guidance for the low temperatures. As a result, low temperatures on Sunday morning are forecast to be in the mid-20s to low 30s across the area.
Winds will subside by Saturday evening, although it will still be a bit breezy. Expect a much-improved but cool, sunny Sunday.