8/25 – The Chief’s “Keep Your Boat Near By” Heavy Rain Thursday Morning Forecast

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT – 7 PM… 

Today through Saturday will continue with the wet pattern. A flash flood watch has been issued for today. This will not be as much of an area wide distribution but more so a rate driven event. Some of the thunderstorms today could be in or around 4″ per hour rates over already saturated grounds. This would cause some areas to flood easily within a short period. Moisture values are still north of 2″. This would lead to a good bit of activity with heating by itself but the weak inverted boundary and surface low will help this a bit, especially since they are over the area today causing a better focus. This was farther north yesterday. These features will continue to weaken but will still hang in enough to help get things going again Friday. I went more optimistic with precip percentages for today since these features are over the area. But I may back these down gently for Friday and possibly again Saturday.

An easterly to southeasterly flow pattern will be in place early next week, which will help to reintroduce more moisture into the area. Although there is no obvious feature aloft or in the mid-levels that would aid convection, a lack of any high pressure will allow for higher precip chances which range from 70-75% through mid-week. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop will likely be on sea or lake breeze boundaries as well as any lingering outflows from previous storms. Temperatures are expected to remain consistent in the mid to upper 80s through the week.