7/5 – Britt’s “Heavy Rain/Flash Flooding” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

An easterly wave noted in the pattern will move westward across the area this afternoon/tonight, enhancing t-storm development. Areal coverage over land this afternoon/tonight should be fairly high. Storms that develop will be very slow moving and could potentially produce isolated very heavy rainfall amounts, especially near and north of the Interstate 10 corridor.

As we move into Wednesday and Thursday, the high-pressure becomes a bit more of a factor, as moisture flow drops a bit and we have no organized forcing. Areal coverage of convection will trend downward a bit each day and develop a little later in the day. Today should be the “coolest” of the next 3 days, but still getting close to 90 before convection cuts off heating. As has been the case the last few days, we’ll have some or most locations reporting their high temperatures prior to noon local time.

As we go into the weekend, drier air will move into the area for at least Friday and Saturday, with precipitable water values falling. Models attempt to push a frontal boundary into the area for Sunday and early next week, but confidence in an actual frontal passage is rather low.