2/25 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

Shower and thunderstorms will begin to move into the area tonight, and a low end severe threat remains mainly from gusty winds. Closer to the coast in the more moisture rich boundary layer and where surface winds will be more southerly tonight, there
is a low end possibility for a brief tornado or two.
The front will begin advancing towards the coast again late tonight.
As it does the boundary is now oriented more SW to NW. The potential for heavy rain and
localized flooding may develop if bands of storms train along this
axis. Expect rain for your Monday morning commute. Late Monday into Tuesday morning looks to be a dry period, but onshore flow quickly returns. Scattered showers and maybe a couple storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday as the slug of moisture
advances back to the north across the area. The strong ridge over
the Gulf responsible for the exceptionally warm weather, while
suppressed south a bit, quickly builds back over the central Gulf
Coast. Expect temperatures Tuesday to be well above average in the
upper 70s and Wednesday likely in the low 80s again with only
isolated precip coverage. In the long range, there continues to be
model agreement that a shortwave trough will approach the lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Tropical air would
again be in place so this upper low and accompanying cold front will
bring more chances for storms. Temperatures closer to normal or just
a bit above are possible behind the cold front at the end of next
week.