10/20 – The Chief’s “Much Warmer Start” FriYay Morning Forecast

The axis of the upper disturbance extended from the Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle early this morning with upper high pressure over the Rockies. If one was going to plot a cold front early this morning, it’d be from Vicksburg to Lake Charles. It’s more of a gradual drying and cooling trend than anything, though. There is some patchy fog noted in observations south of Interstate 10 The front to the north will continue to move toward the Atlantic Coast today and Saturday with upper high pressure beginning to emerge into the Plains States on Saturday. The main issue will the temperatures over the next 24-36 hours, with fire weather factors also a concern.

Drier air will also be moving into the area, along with a west to northwest surface wind flow during the day today. These are all signals for unseasonably warm high temperatures. Low level temperatures around 5k will be in the 60 degrees…that puts most of the area in the 85-90F range this afternoon and again on Saturday. Trends for most of the last several months have seen temperatures sneaking a little higher than the guidance would indicate for highs. And that may not be high enough, especially over the eastern half of the area. I would note that daily record highs today and tomorrow are in the 89-91F range at all our climate sites. The one limiting factor on Saturday afternoon would be that surface winds will be light enough for lake/sea breezes to generate, which probably won’t be the case today. That would have a primary impact on the Mississippi coastal cities.

Some concern with fire weather factors as the drier air moves into the area, considering the long term drought. Forecast minimum relative humidity will fall below 30 percent across the northwest quarter of the area today. The upper high pressure will move eastward late in the weekend into next week. Currently, models indicate at least a little better chance for precipitation toward the end of next week.