8/25 – The Chief’s “Mother Nature’s Trying To Cook Us” Friday Morning Forecast
The stubborn high pressure continues to remain centered over the I-35 corridor from Kansas through much of north and central Texas this morning. Upper level high pressure continues to spread eastward through the central MS River Valley and into the southern Appalachians. Basically, in a nutshell, same old same old around our region with continued hot conditions. Heat index values today are more borderline in terms of meeting Excessive Heat thresholds. However a Heat Advisory remains in effect for all in the area. Rain chances are lower today outside of far southwest MS or our northwestern LA Parishes.
As advertised, the upper high pressure finally retrogrades back into the Desert Southwest away from our region by Saturday. The upper level high pressure extending eastward will continue into the start of the weekend. Continued hot weather unfortunately, but a few of us may see some relief in the later afternoon hours in the form of isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Similarly, a stronger updraft or two may contain a strong burst of wind as the updraft collapses under a particularly dry column. In terms of heat products, we are back to needing Excessive Heat Watches for Saturday as most of the forecast area will exceed minimum thresholds prior to any development of convection in the late afternoon hours.
Going into Sunday and Sunday night eyes shift upstream as what appears to be a much welcomed pattern shift begins to develop. The upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest into the Southeast U.S. will begin to flatten as an upper level weakness begins to develop. As the trough begins to take shape and amplify during the day Sunday and Sunday night a surface cold front will begin to march southward through the Mid=south Region and eventually into the lower MS River Valley. Finally, temperatures “cool” off to the lower and middle 90s to start the long term period as the upper weakness continues to dig across AL/GA on Monday. At the surface, the aforementioned cold front moves into the region providing the focus for at least some diurnally driven convection during the afternoon hours on Monday and Tuesday. With model agreement, continued to advertise higher-end rain chances for late August.
Eyes then tend to glance to our south going into early to midweek next week. NHC has increased the probabilities for TC Genesis to 70 percent (a high chance) across the western Caribbean over the next seven days. We will watch this area closely.
