9/9 – The Chief’s “Changing Pattern” Friday Morning Forecast

The same closed mid to upper-level low pressure remains parked over our area, centered generally over SE LA. The same corridor of deeper moisture continues along progressive S to N flow just to our east over the central Gulf coast states. Today, most activity will remain confined near coastal areas or offshore adjacent marine areas closer to the fetch of moisture.

A few t-storms will be capable of severity include mainly strong, sub-severe storms with the average threats being 30-40 mph downdraft winds and small hail less than 0.5 to 0.75″. However, given the slight uptick in environmental conditions, will advertise the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm attaining severe hail and wind criteria.

Main changes going into the day on Saturday is this mid to upper-low steadily drifts just to our west. Most activity will be diurnally driven, and slow but should crawl at enough pace to reduce a notable flash flood concern. Some of the drier air could lead to a bit more downdraft potential. The upper low that’s been sitting over the area will be weakening and eventually get absorbed by a new progressive upper disturbance digging pretty far south for this time of year. This will move the upper low while adjoined to the trough into the Great Lakes region by Sunday night.