9/30 – Rob Knight’s Monday Morning “Workweek” Forecast

In the short term, not a lot will be change as it looks like we will move out of September with some of the warmest temps on record and driest. But there are some interesting changes that look to be on the horizon.

A very broad open tropical wave is currently moving through the larger islands of the northern Caribbean this morning. This area will continue to march slowly west into the gulf by Thursday or Thursday night. Conditions do not look very hospitable at the moment with respect to deepening or developing. But that is not the main interest. We are looking for any chance to get rainfall and this could help. But we will dissect this a little at a time and look at it within a two cold front time frame. The first of these moves into the area Friday and stalls somewhere at or just off the coast. Not expecting a lot of interaction between the tropical wave and this front. But those who fall to the dry air side of the front will have a much needed break from the heat and humidity. The second stronger front should move near the area by the start of next week.

This front may be progressive enough to draw a good bit of the tropical moisture northward ahead of and along the frontal boundary. But at the same time, there is some indication that the high on the back side of the front will bridge the southern end of the front as it moves through, which is not uncommon this time of year. Unfortunately, this would keep the area with little rainfall. We will have to see how this comes out as it is toward and past the end of this forecast. But possibilities are there.