9/29 – Rob Knight’s “Wet” Hump-Day Forecast
Weak upper-level high pressure currently extends along the Mississippi Valley from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge isn’t particularly strong enough to keep the low-level moisture flow out of the area however. The main concern for today will be isolated areas of heavy rainfall. As seen yesterday, localized 3-5″ will be possible. There`s pretty good agreement between models that the main time-frame for highest possibility will be early afternoon with convection dissipating and moving out of the area late in the day.
Thursday will pretty much be a repeat of today with rain chances dropping off Thursday night. After a brief reprieve of somewhat drier conditions Friday, a minor disturbance will likely be moving across the southern Plains Saturday into Saturday night. This should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area Sunday and much of the area Sunday night.