9/2 – Rob Knight’s Monday Morning HURRICANE DORIAN Update

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely well-defined eye. The diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 nautical miles, and radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates. During the next few days, Dorian should encounter some increase in shear, which will likely result in weakening.  However it is anticipated that the system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several days.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the ridge will develop along 75W-80W.  This would likely cause Dorian to move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate. The official track forecast is very close to the previous. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.

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