9/1 Rob’s “1st Day of September” Afternoon Forecast
A surface low associated with Tropical Depression Ida will continue to move NE, dragging a weak cold front into south Mississippi Thursday morning. Northwesterly flow aloft will develop across the area today between the upper level High pressure over Texas and Ida over the eastern CONUS. The frontal boundary draped southwest of Ida will move southward across Tennessee this morning, then into northern Alabama and Mississippi this afternoon. The frontal boundary will then move towards southern Alabama, southern MS and northeastern Louisiana by Thursday morning. A disturbance was moving southeastward within the northwest flow aloft and this will enhance shower/thunderstorm activity across the area this afternoon. The atmosphere will become quite unstable along the coast and also inland areas this afternoon into early evening, so there could be a few stronger storms capable of producing brief high to locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours during the late afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, which could bring additional flooding concerns as storms move over already saturated grounds. The front will generally dissipate with a fairly dry airmass sticking around during the weekend. Surface high-pressure will become more established in the Gulf of Mexico, southeast of the forecast area, producing a south to southeast flow. This may allow some low level Gulf moisture to stream into the area early next week.