8/14 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon because of fairly typical August weather. An upper-level trough of low pressure supporting multiple surface boundaries will bring showers & t-storms to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. With a warm front in the N’tern portion of the Gulf Coast states…expect decent coverage today and Tuesday around 50 percent in most areas. Diurnal heating will drive the convection with lake and seas breezes as well as any outflow boundaries serving as a focus for the showers and thunderstorms.
A mid/upper level ridge is forecast to build somewhat over the central Gulf for the last half of the work week. This, along with some drier air pushing into the region, should result in more sparse t-storm coverage for that time period. The upper ridge will then weaken and shift westward next weekend which will elevate rain potential into the weekend.
The tropics continue to be watched as Tropical Storm Gert moves off into the Atlantic. Another area of showers and thunderstorms continue to be monitored for tropical development over the next week. This system will continue to move off to the west slowly and could become better organized. Stay tuned for updates on this.