8/30 – Rob Knight’s “Monday Morning/Ida Update” Forecast

With IDA to the NNW moving towards north central Mississippi, expect gradual improvement through today. Widespread rain across the area will continue and gradually decrease to scattered showers later today as Ida tracks slowly to the north.

After the center of the storm exits the area today, there are indications that a feeder band will remain in place across the region. This feeder band could focus training thunderstorms across the same area today into tonight. Given the heavy rainfall occurring with the Ida, flash flooding issues will continue to be a risk. This convergence band will likely persist through Tuesday night, and this will help keep temperatures a bit cooler than average through the short term

period. Highs will likely only warm into the lower 80s today and the middle to upper 80s on Tuesday. Conditions will also remain breezy through Tuesday as a fairly tight pressure gradient lingers over the region in the wake of Ida. Conditions should begin to improve by Tuesday night as the system weakens and the pressure gradient begins to ease.

The convergence boundary and resultant showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the area on Wednesday and keep likely precip chances in place through the day. By Thursday, deep layer northerly flow will take hold of the region and this will usher in a much drier and much more stable airmass. Some weak cool air advection will also occur, and this should help with recovery efforts. Temperatures are projected to dip into the 60s and lower 70s at night and highs are only expected to rise into the upper 80s. Humidity values will also be a bit lower than normal for early September.

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