8/28 – The Chief’s “Back To Seasonal Temps” Monday Afternoon Forecast

Multiple weaknesses in the overall pattern including an area of low pressure to the west has brought rain chances back to the region. Strong cored storms are a good bet again today which will bring the possibility of large hail and damaging winds. The area is under a low-end threat for severity…a MARGINAL THREAT. Most of the area should see rain between today and Tue. Some maps depict a stationary boundary at the surface in our area, but there are no air mass differences at the surface noted. The weakness just off the surface is evident though. This is due to the intensifying hurricane at that time along with a dropping disturbance bringing in some dry air at the surface for Tue.

As far as Idalia is concerned, the forecast for this system is looking quite good. Timing is always everything with any of these systems, so the sooner it starts moving the better. The system will contend with two short waves digging the base of the east coast upper long wave trough over the next few days. The first is moving SSW through eastern Oklahoma this morning and will move into south TX by Tue. The next and most important one is currently dropping into northern Saskatchewan this morning. It is this short wave that finally picks up Idalia and starts to turn it ENE then NE out over FL and into the Atlantic.

We will see most if not all storms dry up by Wednesday. This will be due to a normal process of Idalia wrapping the front into the area on its west side. Even though, this will definitely feel better, it won’t help the fire situation with northerly dry air spilling over the area. The only thing that could help will be the possibility of some wetting rainfall today and Tue. But conditions have been so dry that the ground and vegetation would likely soak this up in no time.