8/24 – The Chief’s “BIG Changes Ahead” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

At the surface, a very subtle weakness resides across portions of the region, however, this feature hasn’t been as productive as I’d like in terms of precip generation. That said, I cannot rule out an isolated shower or t-storm this afternoon. Within the easterly flow aloft there will be a very weak impulse over the local waters, which may spark some convection. Additionally, along with the surface trough and the inland marching sea/lake breeze could generate a few updrafts as well.

Going into Friday the upper level heat bubble will finally start to retrograde westward as an upper level disturbance begins to take shape over the Cornbelt region. There will still be ridging extending from eastern Oklahoma eastward off the Carolina Coast. Although not the hottest day of the year, we’ll need additional heat headlines through the end of the short term period.

Going into the weekend, the aforementioned high pressure will continue to retrograde across the high plains and into the desert southwest. Extending eastward from the high, ridging will continue to reside over the mid-south and southeast U.S. This along with dry soils will keep temperatures elevated through the weekend with likely additional heat products/headlines necessary. Upstream, a cold front will try  to gradually move southward as an upper level weakness begins to develop over the Ohio River Valley, eventually amplifying just a bit over AL/GA late into the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. This feature could bring us some rainfall, especially during peak heating hours Monday and into Tuesday before the boundary stalls over the northern Gulf of Mexico.