8/23 – Brittany’s “Incoming Rain” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast
A strong and persistent meso-low currently over the Arklatex region and broader and weaker shortwave trough in the upper levels will continue to work in conjunction to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. After reviewing radar and satellite trends and the latest convectively aided model guidance, have adjusted the PoP and weather forecast to better account for both ongoing convective activity this morning and potential redevelopment during the afternoon hours. Fortunately, storm motion of around 15 knots today will be sufficient to keep most flooding concerns at bay. Conditions continue to look more favorable for slower storm motions and higher flood risks on Wednesday.
High precip chances will remain the topic along with an environment conducive for waterspouts. Rainfall tallies could be robust the farther north one moves though. This will be due to a sfc low over east Texas and trough extending NE over Louisiana and Mississippi. WPC is showing a slight to moderate risk of excessive rainfall over these areas. Locally, we have a marginal to slight risk. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will be moving northward due to the draw of mass toward the sfc low and trough. The larger scale persistent rainfall will be where these features are located. The trough interface will provide an area of focus and transference of moisture along its boundary but will be stationary causing a long term training of showers and thunderstorms for the next few days. This will be the case through Thursday.