8/18 – Rob’s “Hot & Humid” Wednesday Morning Forecast
Today and Thursday, the normal summertime pattern will dominate the area. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm air and moisture into the area, which will ultimately help with lifting in the environment. As a result, the rainfall will be fairly efficient and rainfall rates will be inside of thunderstorm development over the next few days. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day over the next couple of days, primarily during the peak daytime afternoon heating hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible inside thunderstorm development, based on the model consensus and parameters.
Heat index values will be fairly high over the next couple of days during the afternoon hours thanks to the increased humidity in the environment. Maximum heat index values will range between the low to middle 100s. Heat Index values will not reach criteria for a heat advisory, but values will be higher than normal for this time of year. So, staying hydrated and keeping cool will be key over the next few days. Some locations could see some relief from the heat due to showers or storms development, but for those areas that do not receive rain.
The main story for the weekend and long term forecast will be regarding the potential heat threat/concern. Friday and Saturday, most of the model consensus shows robust high pressure setting up over the area, which will decrease rainfall chances through the weekend. Southerly to easterly winds will help to advect some moisture and warm air into the area. Overall, thunderstorm development will be fairly low to nonexistent Friday and Saturday. As a result of the low rainfall coverage Friday and Saturday, the heat will be a concern as we head toward the weekend. Heat Index values will be in the low to mid 100s Friday and Saturday, but with little to no relief from rainfall, it is possible that these temperatures and index values will overachieve model guidance.