8/11 – Rob Knight’s “Tracking The Tropics” Morning Forecast
Another day of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is on tap with precipitation chances a good deal higher overall than they were yesterday, mainly during the peak heating of the afternoon hours. This should in turn help to keep temperatures in check with generally lower 90s expected. The main concern with the rainfall today will be the possibility of efficient storms leading to some minor flooding issues. More of the same is expected tomorrow and into Friday before Tropical Storm Fred moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late in the work week or early Saturday.
The region will likely be located between two larger scale systems through the weekend and into early next week. The first and most dominant of the features will be a broad mid and upper level ridge axis centered over the Plains states. The second feature will be the broad area of lower pressure associated with Tropical Storm Fred as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then into the Southeastern CONUS over the period. With the region between these two features, the wind field should generally be from the north and northeast through much of the period. This northerly flow pattern in the mid and upper levels will likely disrupt the normal seabreeze pattern that drives most convective development during the summer months.
Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than average in the middle 90s and lows will only cool into the low to mid 70s each day.