8/10 – Rob’s “Elevated Heat Index” Tuesday Morning Forecast

The normal summertime pattern will be dominate the region through Thursday. Southerly to southeasterly surface winds will help to enhance warm air advection and moisture advection over the next few days, which will help with lifting in the environment. Scattered showers and storms will be possible mainly during the peak daytime heating hours. These storms will have the potential for gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Heat index values will be below heat advisory criteria for the next few days with heat index values hovering in the low 100s to mid-100s. So, it will still feel very hot and muggy as well, unless you are one of the lucky ones to receive an afternoon shower or storm.

Thursday through Sunday, the normal summertime pattern will persist and continue to dominate the region. Scattered showers will be possible each day from Thursday through Sunday, primarily during the afternoon daytime heating hours. Another feature worth noting in the extended long-term models is the potential development of a tropical system. The NHC has a 80% chance of development for this system in the next 5 days as it is projected to approach the Caribbean. The model guidance on this system is still really inconsistent and consensus is low. We will have to monitor this area closely over the next week and see how it develops. At this time, there is no immediate threat to our forecast area. However, it is always important to have a plan in place as we are steadily approaching the peak of hurricane season.

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