8/1 – Rob Knight’s “August Outlook” Morning Forecast

The overall weather pattern will be slow to change over the next 7 days and even that change will not be very much. What will likely be observed is a gradual increase in convective coverage from isolated/scattered to scattered/numerous. In the upper levels, one ridge is centered over the desert southwest while the Bermuda ridge extends over the east coast of the country. That leaves a weakness/trough between those 2 features, which is where the local area ends up.

The eastern side of the ridge to the west will gradually erode westward with time. This change will reduce subsidence and, combined with strong daytime heating, will allow for increasing daytime thunderstorms across the forecast area. We are looking at a range of 40 to 60% each day through this weekend and into early next week. The northeastern areas will see the highest coverage and southwestern seeing the lowest.

Beyond typical 7 day forecast, will be monitoring wave way out in the Atlantic for its movement. Medium range models bring it into the Bahamas late next week in various degrees of development. Main thing watching for is if it will recurve as models currently show.