7/8 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Tropical Update

TODAY & TUESDAY: The heat is on and a Heat Advisory continues through this evening with heat index values well over 100. There is also a low chance for a few showers and t-storms. This pattern continues through Tuesday before things begin to change thanks to the tropics.

TROPICS: A trough of low pressure over Central Georgia this afternoon will continue to move south toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As this disturbance approaches the warm gulf it is expected to develop into a low pressure. This is where the forecast gets tricky. There are many influences on where this low pressure develops, and for the most part it’s hard to know where the dominate circulation will develop until it does so. A few scenarios have different outcomes, but the overall trend since Sunday night has been a west moving system. A more southerly system could produce a strong storm, while a more northern system closer to the coastline would likely be somewhat weaker. It’s too soon to say for sure which happens, but it’s something we’ll be monitoring. Overall, the rain chances will be going up for the Gulf Coast later this week as the disturbance moves across the Gulf of Mexico. It’s still too soon to say exact impacts, track or intensity if we get a tropical system. It’s important to check back daily and as always it’s a good idea to review your hurricane plane.

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