7/27 – Rob’s “Wet Start” Monday/Workweek Forecast

Rainy! That continues to be the story across the region today and couple more days. While the area lost some moisture yesterday, we will gain quite a bit of instability. That, in combination with little/less subsidence with a ridge receding east and away from the area, will create a conducive environment for numerous efficient showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be the biggest impact with street flooding possible. At the moment, it doesn’t look like flash flooding will be a huge issue but small scale problems could arise due to fairly decent rainfall totals from today soaking the grounds.

The general forecast doesn’t look like it will change much through at least the middle of the week.  An upper level disturbance will drop out of Canada near the upper Mississippi Valley and swing across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, then shift east towards the Atlantic. This will first push the upper ridge centered in the western Atlantic southward. South Mississippi will be in an area of weakness between that high pressure and another near the US Desert Southwest. Towards the Wed/Thur time frame, the far western side of that Atlantic ridge will break off and become centered over the eastern GOM. Depending on how strong that smaller ridge is will determine home far it extends north and shields the local area from rainfall.

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