7/26 – Rob Knight’s Friday-Eve Morning Forecast

An upper low just north of the Great Lakes extends from the Atlantic Coast to the central Gulf of Mexico, just south and east of our coastal waters. At the surface, the old frontal boundary remains to the south of the area, with a weak surface high pressure centered near the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.

The expected forecast scenario really hasn’t changed much from 24 hours ago…but as high pressure to the north moves eastward over the next few days, moisture levels will slowly increase. As the moisture flow return Friday, isolated afternoon showers/t-storms will begin developing into the weekend. Moisture levels return to near 2 inches on Sunday, and remain near that level through Tuesday. This alone would indicate an increase in areal coverage of convection during the heat of the afternoon.

However, a strong shortwave is expected to move through the Mississippi River Valley Monday into mid-week. This will force a cold front into the area, providing an additional focus for thunderstorm development. We will carry likely precip chances for much of the area during the daytime hours from Sunday through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the boundary should progress far enough into the area to allow for somewhat lower rain. By mid-week, the cumulative effect of daily rains is likely to produce rain totals near 2 inches for much of the area, with a few spot amounts probably much higher.