7/24 – Rob Knight’s “LOW HUMIDITY” Morning Forecast
The cold front has passed and what a difference it makes. Dew point temperatures have fallen into the lower 60s north, to around 70 south. This has made the air feel a lot nicer than yesterday. Even temps have fallen into the 60s north and mid 70s this morning.
This air won’t last very long though as the deep moisture ahead of the stalling front will lurk just offshore and finally move back into the area Friday into Friday night. This will cause precip chances to rise once again as well.
This scenario does not provide a very hospitable environment for purely tropical systems to thrive. But to see one or two surface lows spin up along the surface frontal south is not uncommon, especially when there is a temperature difference as we have with this front and an upper jet providing some dynamic support. The Hurricane Center has the area along the front with 20%of developing such a subtropical or tropical surface low. It would not be at all surprising to see one or two separate weak surface lows along this frontal boundary over time. And most models do bring at least one surface low to the northeast along the boundary into the northeast gulf through Friday night…