7/24 – Payton’s Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

What a beautiful afternoon! Low humidity, sunshine and a light breeze. This will continue into tonight and Thursday, but won’t last forever. The deep moisture ahead of the stalling front will lurk just offshore and finally move back into the area Friday into Friday night. This will cause rain chances to rise once again as well. Upper trough has also began to put on the breaks and will eventually elongate from NE to SW.

This jet does not provide a very hospitable environment for purely tropical systems to thrive. But to see one or two surface lows spin up along the surface frontal interface is not uncommon, especially when there is a temperature difference as we have with this front and an upper jet providing some dynamic support. But there are always exceptions to the rule. It normally takes a while, but systems can develop in a cold core environment and evolve into a tropical system. The Hurricane Center has the area along the front with 20%
of developing such a subtropical or tropical surface low. It would not be at all surprising to see one or two separate weak surface lows along this frontal boundary over time. And most models do bring at least one surface low to the northeast along the boundary into the northeast gulf over time.