7/22 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Start” Friday Morning Forecast

Today will be the most active day over the next 3 days. Today we will be between two areas of high pressure that will try to merge across the entirety of the southern CONUS leaving us in a slight weakness aloft with slightly cooler mid-level temps. We also will be dealing with the remnants of the convection and outflow boundary currently moving through the area. And lastly there is an of a weak somewhat easterly wave that will try to move from GA over southern MS and possibly into central LA by late tonight. All of this makes for a rather difficult and messy forecast as any one of these could increase or decrease coverage, lead to far different time frames from much of today to mainly just this afternoon and early evening, to possibly even convection that persists through most of the night.

Expect lingering showers through the morning hours and then it could take much of the day to get any stronger convection leading to heavier rain and more frequent lightning as we wait for the sun to break through providing a little more instability. I believe convection will persist at least somewhat into the evening hours.

Heading into the weekend convection will still be possible but the probabilities will steadily drop each day as high pressure starts to take over. Models in the long term are in good agreement that upper level high pressure will be dominating the area and we will be on the western periphery of surface high pressure. These will give us a routine and fairly benign weather pattern bringing southerly winds and gulf moisture over much of the period. Cloud coverage associated with the convection should moderate temperatures slightly giving highs in the low to mid 90s and keeping us below the Heat Advisory criteria.

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