7/19 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Pattern Returns” Monday Morning Forecast

The wetter than average summer pattern is expected to continue through the period, and in fact rain chances will be even higher then recent days for much of the short term periods. A stationary front will continue to slowly move/develop south and southeastward through the plains to mid/lower Mississippi Valley area, just north of the forecast area during the period. In addition, the position of the mid to upper level support will set up the central Gulf coast region in a very diffluent pattern aloft Monday into Tuesday. All this should lead to widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day. At this time, the risk of excessive rainfall appears more on the marginal risk/localized side that does not require a Flash Flood Watch at this time, but that will need to be monitored over the next couple days as the risk could ramp up with this pattern in place.

The wet pattern will likely continue into Thursday and Friday, due to another possible disturbances moving across the lower Mississippi Valley and a continued pooling of higher PW near 2 inches. A transitional pattern with more high pressure building over the forecast area from the west is seeming more likely over the weekend. Moisture values should drop off, with lowering afternoon rain chances down to 30-40% on Saturday and 20-30% on Sunday.

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