6/28 – Rob Knight’s “Lower Temps, Higher Rain Chances” Tuesday Morning Forecast
High-pressure is currently over the Rockies, with low-pressure along the Atlantic Coast. The area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico appears to be centered south of Lake Charles. A frontal boundary extends from near Atlanta to Birmingham to Lake Charles. This boundary separates moist air with dew points in the lower and middle 70s to the south from drier air with dew points near 60 to the north.
The area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico will drift slowly westward over the next couple of days, eventually arriving on the Texas coast on Thursday. The frontal boundary to our north isn’t really going anywhere over the next few days, either.
Looking at available moisture, if there’s going to be a day that is drier than the other two, it’ll be today, and even then mainly over about the eastern half of the area. Elevated moisture will be at its lowest today but continue to climb Wednesday and Thursday. Most activity is expected to occur during the afternoon and early evening hours. Wind fields remain rather light, with anticipated cell movements less than 5 mph. Locally heavy rain will be a threat each day, but the threat of widespread heavy amounts is low. Regarding temperatures, anticipate very little change in overnight lows from night to night. High temperatures, of course, will be dependent on timing of convective development.
The remnants of the Gulf disturbance will gradually lift from Texas to somewhere around Memphis over the weekend before dissipating. There’s not really a lot of change in moisture levels for at least Friday and Saturday, and those days will look a whole lot like Thursday. Beyond Saturday, high-pressure tries to build back across the area, which would favor some (but not total) suppression in t-storm development, and slightly hotter temperatures.