6/25 – Rob’s “Wet Pattern Continues” Morning Forecast
Ample forcing and instability across the region will combine together to produce another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. A very saturated atmosphere will support some locally heavy rainfall events. Given the antecedent conditions now in place, it is prudent to leave a flash flood watch in place for the entire forecast area through this evening. The thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish through the mid and late evening hours as instability wanes. Some drier air is also expected to move over the region late tonight into tomorrow morning, this will drop water values down. As a result, overall convective coverage late tonight into late tomorrow morning should be 20 percent or less. The slightly drier airmass will remain in place tomorrow afternoon. Expect increased convective activity Saturday afternoon around the 40-50 percent range on Saturday
Sunday is an interesting day as a high-pressure is expected to begin developing over the area. However, relatively high water vapor values will still be in place. Although there will be limited forcing aloft to support convective development, model soundings show ample instability will be in place. This instability combined with the high theta e airmass will support scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development mostly in the late morning and afternoon hours. The convection should quickly dissipate in the evening hours, and expect to see mainly dry conditions by midnight on Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday will be very typical Summer weather days.