6/24 – Rob Knight’s “EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING” Friday Morning Forecast
High pressure continues to dominate the upper level pattern. Heat will be the biggest concern tonight through Saturday. The high pressure is still building/staying over our area, and general convection appears to be similar to yesterday, meaning an isolated t-storm could be possible, but most areas will be dry. As a result, heat index values are forecast to be above 108 with some locations, especially along the MS coast and around Lake Pontchartrain, forecast to see heat index values in excess of 112 degrees.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 10 AM – 7 PM
There will be the potential for an isolated to scattered shower/storm tomorrow late afternoon and early evening, which could limit the heat potential. But there will likely be only a couple storms, looking at the models, and they will be pulse type storms that will quickly develop and quickly dissipate. The main threats from these storms will be frequent lightning, hail, and gusty winds.
Sunday, the high pressure starts to break down over the area. A plume of moisture in the Gulf is likely to sit just offshore, looking at the models, which will enhance rain chances especially for the coastal areas. Storms that occur will have the potential for higher rainfall rates and efficient rainfall. There will be the chance for locally heavy rainfall inside of stronger storms. However, the antecedent conditions are pretty dry and should be able to absorb a decent amount of rainfall before problems would develop. A wet pattern will continue next week as temperatures will drop back to seasonal values around 90 degrees.