6/21 – The Chief’s “1st Day Of Summer” Hot & Humid Morning Forecast

A blocking pattern continues across the mid-section of the country which is the cause for our previous, current and future heatwave. Seems hard to believe, but normal highs this time of year should only be about 90 degrees. Today is expected to be the “coolest” day of the week. It doesn’t feel natural to type that knowing forecast highs are roughly 92-97 across the local area. A weak easterly wave riding around the southern periphery of the upper ridge centered near TN/MO/AR will likely provide just enough lift to support t-storms this afternoon. More isolate t-storms could develop as far north as the I-10 corridor. Main threats with these storms will be gusty winds and even hail.

The center of the upper high pressure looks to shift westward Wednesday and Thursday as a weakness skirts the Canada/US border. Subsidence increases locally which will bring rain chances back to a minimum. This should push heat indices over the heat advisory threshold of 108. Therefore, expect to see a heat advisory out for both days.

The upper high pressure will come right back east Friday and Saturday. And this time its center is even closer to the area than it has been. That’s why we’re seeing models showing highs to be 100+ for many locations. While Friday, am fairly confident we’ll see those highs right around 100 degrees, am less confident this weekend. The reason is due to the potential for t-storms. The weekend will bring the best chance for relief from the heat with rain chances increasing to around 30-40%.

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