6/14 – The Chief’s “Slight/Enhanced Severe Potential” Wednesday Morning Forecast

There is plenty to talk about in the first 24-48 hours with a challenging forecast ahead. An impulse riding SE along a stationary front to the North will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere. The response will be a volatile, unstable elevated layer aloft yielding the potential for SEVERE T-STORMS to develop late morning into this afternoon.This is one area to focus on in the next 12-ish hours, but we have a lot more going on elsewhere that may also impact our local area. As mentioned, we remain in a progressive quasi-zonal flow pattern parked between an area of high pressure over MX to an upper-level low over the Great lakes. With ample deep gulf moist feed north and a weak, yet subtle frontal boundary to our north, this is a rather good setup for multiple T-STORM COMPLEX’S tracking just to our north hence the now upgraded SLIGHT to MODERATE risk across the northern area. Convection is already ongoing to the NW riding SE…and may in fact be our first complex this morning. Some clipping of our southern MS counties will occur as well as coastal SE MS would be in greater risk of being impacted, which currently has best rain chances.

Beyond this initial complex, we then become rather quiet throughout the day before the next round of widespread severe thunderstorms erupts across and near the AR/LA/TX region, east across MS and AL in association with the front drifting east over the central US. For now, the Storm Prediction Center day 1 outlook highlights the probabilities rather well.

Even beyond this going into overnight into early Thursday, this weak impulse approaches us drifting ESE across the southern MS valley region. This may be enough lift to get multiple more rounds of showers and storms developing across central/southern LA and MS regardless of supportive diurnal instability. We could deal with a round of strong to locally severe storms overnight into early Thursday, especially if any remnant outflow boundary can set up near our area, which could even extend into the day on Thursday as we quickly grow unstable within this same volatile atmosphere.