6/13 – Sam Parker’s “Rain Free” Thursday Midday Forecast

Today will bring increasing subsidence through the area as high pressure begins to expand eastward from the southern Plains. Cumulus cloud development can be expected this afternoon with temperatures slightly above our climatological average with high temperatures to be in the low 90s.

The shower and thunderstorm activity will be less likely on Friday and Saturday as stronger high pressure becomes centered over the region. Dry air aloft, subsidence will effectively cap off any rain chances over most of southern Mississippi both days. The only region that may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop will be along the immediate coast, along the sea-breeze front.

As high pressure shifts east of the area on Sunday, we will have plume of deeper tropical moisture to begin feeding into the region. Sunday will see moisture rebounding back to average for mid-June, and this will allow for greater showers/t-storm development by Sunday afternoon. The highest rain chances will be along the immediate coast and offshore where the deepest moisture is expected. Fortunately, the storm motion will be around 10 knots, and this will help to limit the heavy rainfall threat. More numerous showers and t-storms are expected over the warmer offshore.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be a much more unsettled stretch of weather as the region remains under the influence of deep tropical moisture.