6/12 – The Chief’s “Low-End Severe Potential” Monday Afternoon Forecast

Very HOT temperatures ahead this afternoon as the HEAT INDEX will top the 100 degree mark. A stationary front coupled with daytime heating will pop afternoon showers/t-storm. Meanwhile high pressure was centered from the Florida Straits to the northern Gulf of Mexico just south of our area. There’s not a lot of agreement between short term models and global models regarding whether thunderstorms develop at all, or how widespread it will be if it does. Another disturbance will ride along this stationary front moving southeastward from Texas will have the opportunity to take advantage of a fairly unstable airmass.

Moisture values continue to elevate this morning, are expected to peak later this afternoon. This leaves us with a 30% chance of T-storms for today through Tuesday. Potential for heat related issues is increasing as dew points have risen well into the 70s. Yesterday’s max heat index values were generally around 96-100, but with the currently forecast conditions those numbers are likely to jump to the 104-107 range today and Tuesday. Any thunderstorm development is likely to occur after max heat index values are reached, but may provide some relief.