5/6 – Rob Knight’s “Morning T-Storms” Friday Forecast

This morning will bring another line of showers/t-storms developing in response to the next disturbance which can be seen in the blowup of convection over the NW gulf. Stability is lacking for this activity as the first line has been able to knock stability values down quite a bit. With help from the disturbance and surface forcing, one or two of these could become strong or severe with all modes on the table but not expecting it to be like the earlier line of showers/t-storms. Strong stability does move into the area once the cold front begins to move through later this afternoon.

Clouds will clear the area this afternoon but since the frontal boundary stalls and is somewhat quasi-stationary, moisture will be trapped along and south of it where there will be opportunity for dense fog to form maybe in a few locations Sat morning but there are some strong indications that Sunday morning will be a very good morning for production as well.

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern. Southerly surface winds will help to enhance warmer and moist air in the environment. Upper level convergence will help to enhance sinking and stable air in the environment. As a result, conditions Sunday through Wednesday will be pretty dry overall and this is evidenced in the model consensus.