5/22 – The Chief’s “Low Rain Chances Ahead” Monday morning Forecast

Some weak marine convection has developed near and east of the mouth of the MS River this morning. A few lightning strikes have occurred, but those are rather localized at this point in time. Elsewhere, northerly flow across the region has allowed surface dew-points to drop slightly over the last few hours with portions of the north shore and interior south MS dropping into the 60s. Overall, I think ran chances will be rather limited today with the best rain/convection potential being along and east of I59 where the best upper support resides. Aloft, a fairly progressive zonal flow develops over our region under a weak low pressure over the ArkLaMiss region. At the surface the low level flow is very light, which should allow for a sea/lake breeze to develop. That said, drier air aloft especially the further west you go in our area will limit cloud growth.

Overnight the mid and upper level weakness currently over the ArkLaMiss begins to become more apparent over Alabama and Georgia. This will likely place our region on the drier side with a bit drier air working in over the region with weak northwesterly flow. Despite the dry northwest flow aloft, there still could be diurnally driven convection, especially over the eastern gulf waters where instability will be just a bit better as well as the proximity to a bit more mid and upper level lift and modestly better lapse rates in association with the aforementioned weakness that stubbornly hangs around the southeast U.S. through the end of the short term period.

A cut-off upper trough situated over/near southeast CONUS will dictate the majority of the forecast period’s weather. This will lead to a shot of drier air via a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. Drier low-level conditions will yield lower rain chances each day through the remainder of the week.