5/22 – Brittany’s “Wet Pattern Ahead” Sunday Evening Forecast

An area of low pressure located of across the Northern Gulf of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are expected to move to the north and east through the evening. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this low pressure area a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, with the environment not conducive to development at this time. Regardless, this low pressure system still has plenty of Gulf moisture to work with and rainfall will be a concern. The better chances of widespread and potentially heavy rainfall will be over Coastal Mississippi. The proximity to the Gulf Low as well as several upper level perturbations will keep the unsettled weather in the forecast through much of the week. Chances for showers and storms will continue through at least Monday into Tuesday before the Gulf surface low moves off to the northeast.

At least another day or two of unsettled weather will continue through the extended forecast period. With a warm front situated to across North-central LA, a stronger storm system across the Central Plains will push eastward, driving a cold front back towards the CWA. Wednesday will have the potential for widespread storms some of which could be severe. In fact, SPC has at least part of the northern portions of the CWA in a Day 4 outlook. Showers and storms would continue into Wednesday night and Thursday before the front clears the area and moves into the Gulf. Dry and hot weather will return in time for the holiday weekend as high pressure builds across the region.