5/21 – Rob’s Warm & Wet Workweek Forecast

A more active weather pattern is expected this week and into the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. An overall weakening of a ridge aloft and increasing and deepening moisture across the region will result in more conducive conditions for convective development…with perhaps the best chances into mid-week across the more eastern areas of the forecast area closer to a mid/upper low near the northeast Gulf coast that will slowly move northward and weaken.

Toward the end of the week and into the weekend there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with the eventual evolution of a disturbance forecast to move into the Gulf from the western Caribbean and the tropical moisture that will be associated with it.

Forecast model still disagree on the development and movement of this feature in the Gulf and the development of a surface low. A few models solution remains east with a weak low moving toward Florida while others has it well to the west with a surface low tracking toward the central Gulf coast region. At this time, we will maintain high precipitation chances during the holiday weekend period, but I may need to increase this later tin the workweek. The increased shower and thunderstorm coverage and more in the way of cloud cover will hold temperatures down a bit from what have been recently observed.