5/21 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast

A more active weather pattern is expected this week and into the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. An overall weakening of a ridge aloft and increasing and deepening moisture across the region will result in more conducive conditions for convective development…with perhaps the best chances into mid-week across the more eastern areas of the forecast area closer to a mid/upper low near the northeast Gulf coast that will slowly move northward and weaken.

Toward the end of the week and into the weekend there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with the eventual evolution of a disturbance forecast to move into the Gulf from the western Caribbean and the tropical moisture that will be associated with it.

TROPICS:

Forecast model still disagree on the development and movement of this feature in the Gulf and the development of a surface low. A few models solution remains east with a weak low moving toward Florida while others has it well to the west with a surface low tracking toward the central Gulf coast region. At this time, we will maintain high precipitation chances during the holiday weekend period, but I may need to increase this later in the workweek. The increased shower and thunderstorm coverage and more in the way of cloud cover will hold temperatures down a bit from what have been recently observed.